In a seismic shift that reshapes how America gauges its leaders, Gallup has abruptly halted its 88-year tradition of tracking presidential approval ratings, leaving a void in historical data essential for understanding political legacies.
This bombshell announcement, revealed on the Whole Hog Politics podcast, signals the end of an era where Gallup provided the only consistent benchmark for comparing presidents across decades. For 88 years, since the days of Franklin D. Roosevelt, these polls offered invaluable context, capturing public sentiment through wars, recessions, and scandals.
The decision comes amid growing skepticism about polling’s role in a fractured media landscape, as discussed by hosts Bill Salmon and Chris Stywalt. They delved into the implications, noting that Gallup’s data spanned 15 modern presidencies, from Truman to Biden, painting a vivid picture of shifting public moods.
Salmon highlighted the polls’ unique value, pointing out that no other organization matched Gallup’s longevity. “It’s 37% of our presidential history,“ he said, emphasizing how this loss erases a critical tool for analysis. The conversation turned to trivia, revealing stark contrasts in approval ratings.
For instance, Donald Trump holds the lowest average approval at 41%, followed closely by Joe Biden at 42.2% and Harry Truman at 45.4%. On the flip side, John F. Kennedy, Dwight D. Eisenhower, and George H.W. Bush topped the charts, their highs fueled by wartime unity and Cold War triumphs.
Stywalt added depth, reflecting on how foreign policy victories, like Bush’s Gulf War success, often fade from voter memory. “Americans don’t vote on foreign policy much,“ he noted, underscoring that economic woes ultimately overshadowed Bush’s achievements, leading to his defeat.
The discussion grew urgent as they examined individual presidential peaks and valleys. George W. Bush soared to 90% approval post-9/11 but plummeted to historic lows amid Iraq fallout, a 65-point swing that exemplifies the polls’ rollercoaster revelations.
This cessation raises profound questions about the future of public opinion measurement. Without Gallup, experts worry that emerging polls may lack the impartiality and breadth needed to track trends accurately in an age of social media echo chambers.
Salmon and Stywalt speculated on possible reasons for Gallup’s retreat, from methodological challenges to waning public trust in surveys. Yet, they stressed verified facts: the polls’ end removes a neutral yardstick, potentially skewing historical narratives.
The podcast also touched on broader polling woes, including a recent Pew Research survey showing 57% of Americans distrust journalists. This distrust, starkly divided by party, amplifies the stakes, with Democrats more confident in media than Republicans.
In Texas, the conversation shifted to Senate races, where polarizing candidates like Jasmine Crockett and Ken Paxton lead primaries. Stywalt warned of “low-information voters“ fueling extremism, a trend that Gallup’s data once illuminated.
As the hosts wrapped up, they circled back to fundraising disparities, noting Republicans’ cash edge could influence midterms. But the core issue remained: Gallup’s exit erodes democratic accountability, forcing reliance on less reliable sources.
This development isn’t just a data loss; it’s a cultural one. For nearly a century, Gallup’s polls shaped elections, informed policies, and reflected national soul-searching. Now, with that mirror shattered, the path forward feels uncertain and volatile.
Experts are scrambling to assess the impact, as political analysts fear a fragmented landscape where facts blur into opinion. The urgency is palpable: without this historical anchor, how will future generations measure leadership?
Salmon’s final thoughts echoed the podcast’s tone: “People ultimately vote on what affects them daily—the economy, jobs, inflation—not abstract wins abroad.“ Yet, he lamented the missed opportunity to learn from past patterns.
In related news, the Hill’s Whole Hog Politics newsletter continues to dissect these shifts, offering incisive commentary. As the 2024 cycle heats up, the absence of Gallup’s steady pulse could alter campaigns dramatically.
The conversation extended to media bias, with Stywalt critiquing both parties’ echo chambers. “Democrats need to engage more, Republicans less,“ he said, highlighting how misinformation thrives in isolation.
This breaking story underscores a pivotal moment: the erosion of trusted institutions in an era of division. As America hurtles toward elections, the loss of Gallup’s polls serves as a stark reminder of what’s at stake.
With potential economic indicators cooling and inflation easing, the political terrain is shifting rapidly. Yet, without Gallup’s oversight, verifying these trends becomes a high-stakes gamble.
Listeners of Whole Hog Politics were left with a call to action: stay informed, question sources, and demand accountability. In this fast-evolving landscape, the end of an 88-year tradition is more than news—it’s a wake-up call.
As debates rage on, one thing is clear: the void left by Gallup will echo through American politics, challenging the very foundations of how we understand power and public will. The race to fill that gap is on, and the outcome could redefine democracy itself.